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What Have We Learned from the Primaries So Far?
The House: National dynamics leave Democrats looking to salvage what they can in the House as intra-party fights continue apace.
The Senate: The national dynamics plaguing House Democrats also are hurting Senate Democrats. But individual races and candidate quality are larger factors to determine control of the upper chamber.
The States: Trump's unsubstantiated grievances around the 2020 elections are playing a central role in the 2022 midterms. But what Trump cares about, many voters shrug or oppose.
How Goes the Buildout of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law?
Update on Funding. About six months after the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), federal spending is well underway.
Biden’s Labor Agenda. The Democrats’ major labor legislation, the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, is stalled in the Senate. The Biden administration is looking to advance the president’s pro-labor priorities though in part through federal infrastructure spending.
Biden’s “Buy American” Agenda. The Biden administration has also established “Made in America” requirements for material used in infrastructure projects funded under the law.
What Tax Changes Can Congress Really Pass This Year?
Reconciliation: Tax Hikes and SALT. There are not 60 votes in the Senate for any of the approximately $1.5 trillion in tax revenue raisers still under consideration by Democrats through the budget reconciliation process, meaning the only way these move forward is if all 50 Senate Democrats can agree on a party-line package, particularly Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).
If Reconciliation Fails. Some reconciliation tax provisions (and their reconciliation costs) could find a bipartisan path to passage in the interim if a partisan package fails to come to fruition.
Other Tax Provisions with Some Momentum. While by no means exhaustive, the following are tax policies worth watching for potential passage this year.
Check Back in 2025. There are some tax policies that just don't have the room to be negotiated and enacted, even if there's bipartisan interest.
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